After weeks of intensive campaigning, debates and countless news coverage here’s what I think our City Council will look like by the counting is done. My predicted winners are in bold, I read profiles, news articles and questionnaires and I watched recorded debates. It was in no way scientific, all considerations were as if I were voting in the ward.
Ward 1 – Orleans
I watched and read about this race closely. The winner will get less than 18% of the vote, I think that will be Catherine Kitts. UPDATE: I was wrong, Matthew Luloff was elected
Ward 2 – Innes
I hear a lot of talk about Laura Dudas, but when I watched the debate I found her to be pushy and ‘had’ to get her word in. A slight advantage might go to Tammy Lynch over Danna Leith-Gudbranson. UPDATE: Wrong again, Laura Dudas was elected.
Ward 3 – Barrhaven
Jan Harder, that’s it.
Ward 4 – Kanata North
This is tough to call, a Jim Watson loyalist and a Marianne Wilkinson endorsed candidate are squaring off. No one told 3rd time candidate Matt Muirhead he didn’t belong. The 3rd time will be the charm for Muirhead. UPDATE: Oops, Jenna Sudds is the new councillor in Kanata North.
Ward 5 – West Carleton March
Eli El-Chantiry has held the seat at council since 2003; he will still be the councillor for West Carleton – March after Monday’s election.
Ward 6 – Stittsville
Like his neighbour Eli El-Chantiry, Shad Qadri has held the ward for 15 years since being elected in 2003. In 2018 he is facing his toughest challenger in Glen Gower. But unlike his neighbour, Qadri will not be re-elected.
Ward 7 – Bay
The battle of political spouses; Theresa Kavanagh is political in her own right and Alex Cullen never sent a robocall out on her behalf.
Ward 8 – College
First elected to Nepean city council 30 years ago, Rick Chiarelli defies all challengers. He’ll do it again Monday.
Ward 9 – Knoxdale- Merivale
I can’t see or hear any reason that has given the voters not to give Keith Egli a 3rd term.
Ward 10 – Gloucester Southgate
It could be close with Diana Deans over Robert Swaita. This ward needed a good one on one contest to see any change.
Ward 11 – Beacon Hill – Cyrville
This ward had Tim Tierney’s name on it well before the last minute decision to avoid an acclamation.
Ward 12 – Rideau Vanier
Mathieu Fleury’s fight for Vanier over the Salvation Army will win over the voters. This election might make him a better councillor (and maybe candidate for Mayor).
Ward 13 – Rideau Rockcliffe
Toby Nussbaum is a tough one to knock off in a mano-a-mano battle.
Ward 14 – Somerset
I expect Catherine McKenney to return. There were no debates (other than the Rogers TV) in this ward and the only challenger I noticed was Jerry Kovacs. He ran a good campaign but his success will be in coming second.
Ward 15 – Kitchissippi
This is Jeff Leiper’s seat for another four years.
Ward 16 – River
Riley Brockington will not be re-elected; look for Fabien Kalala Cimankinda to carry his momentum, and Maria McCrae’s endorsement, through to the final ballot to council chambers. UPDATE: This is one of two incorrect predictions I am happy with, Riley was re-elected.
Ward 17 – Capital
I could chicken out and call this too close to call. This is a Catherine McKenna MP Christine McAllister) vs Joel Harden MPP (Shawn Menard) battle of candidates with Anthony Carricato in the mix. With a recent provincial win, this will be a Team Harden victory for Shawn Menard.
Ward 18 – Alta Vista
Many challengers’ to Jean Cloutier’s position makes for an incumbent win.
Ward 19 – Cumberland
The challengers made this an easy win for Stephen Blais, welcome back Councillor.
Ward 20 – Osgoode
You would think ward would have been a really good race, it dod not turn out that way. George Darouze gets another term at council.
Ward 21 – Rideau Goulbourn
I like Scott Moffat, he’s done a good job but I hear far too much chatter about David Brown. I’ll take the chatter as the challenger’s advantage over the incumbent. UPDATE: The chatter was wrong, Moffat was re-elected, I am glad I was ‘inaccurate’ here as well.
Ward 22 – Gloucester South Nepean
With name, face and voice recognition, Carol Anne Meehan will make Michael Qaqish a one-term councillor. He will be back on the ballot in 2022 to challenge for the seat again.
Ward 23 – Kanata South
Another four years for Allan Hubley, though after that I don’t know – we’ll see how he does on council and if he increases his profile in the entire City
Jim Watson will be re-elected. I am already looking forward the 2022 Municipal elections when there will be a real race for Mayor. Clive Doucet made it interesting. The big story coming out of this election is how the Jim Watson treats his public activities as a private citizen on a ‘personal’ Twitter.
UPDATE after the Votes were counted: I scored 18/23 Councillor races. I was wrong in my selections in Orleans, Innes, Kanata North, River and Rideau Goulbourn.
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