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Strategic voting – the Disruptor?

The next few posts mark a return of posting in #RedHeartBlueSign following a number of weeks as Campaign Manager for Colleen McCleery, the Ontario PC Candidate in Ottawa Centre.  The views presented here are my own and they come from my observations from the campaign trail.

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I have a view of an intersection, which is used by pedestrians, cyclists, skateboarders, motorcyclists, cars and truck and the odd tour bus.  Normally it runs like clock work, rules are followed; everyone gets through the intersection without much delay.  It flows quite smoothly.  That us until there is one person – a disruptor, it doesn’t matter whom – decides that they will go against flow because they can. It puts the rhythm of the traffic in question and it may put people into harms way because adjustments have to be made on the fly.

I think the flow of traffic can be much like an election campaign, there is flow, and there are the basic movements within the campaign.  Movements like knocking on doors, identifying voters and getting your message out into the public domain and letting the voters see your name on signs.  One hopes that if this strategy stays that way that campaigns can be predictable in how they unfold.  It makes it easy for voters to identify themselves who they relate to the best – the left, the centre or the left.

But like that one person going though the intersection, one event upsets the flow and causes a rethink in the minds of the voters.  In the just completed Ontario voters there were was one major and one minor act of obstruction. One played right into the other and it cause casualties in Ottawa Centre.

The one major announcement that upset the electoral apple cart in the election that was just completed was Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne announcing, make that conceding, the election to one of the other parties six days before election day and encouraging Ontarians to vote for their local Liberal candidate to ensure that 1) The Liberals might maintain official party stats with 8 MPP’s and 2) act as the opposition to the Government and the Official Opposition in Queen’s Park.

The second act of electoral defiance to the normal flow was discovered in Ottawa Centre itself.  The NDP Candidate and eventual MPP Joel Harden had views that differed from the platform that was being put forward by the Ontario NDP.  He was critical that the carbon tax should rise to $150/tonne.  He also supported the Leap Manifesto that came out the National NDP convention that caused Thomas Mulcair’s fall from that party’s leadership. As well there were other critical issues that arose from the past of some other NDP candidates. These were enough that the vote for your Liberal candidate became the strategic vote in the last week of the campaign.

One Liberal MP that took advantage of this was in Ottawa South where John Fraser used signs that didn’t feature Liberal red or the party logo and simply stated “Only John Fraser can stop Doug Ford in Ottawa South” in black and yellow.  In Ottawa Centre, Yasir Naqvi stuck to his “re-elect a good MPP” hoping to keep his seat. In both cases the Liberal MPP was trailing heading to Election Day and out of Kathleen Wynne’s announcement came two different plans – but mainly strategic voting finally became an issue in the Ontario General election.

Strategic voting became the ‘thing’ that upset the rhythm of this campaign.

The strategy from Kathleen Wynne to vote for a Liberal MPP helped both these Liberals get a bump in the polls giving them each hope of keeping their seats. In the end though there were casualties. In Ottawa South, PC Karin Howard, one who expected to turn Ottawa South blue, lost to Fraser.  In Ottawa Centre, the bump Naqvi received was not enough to prevent him from losing to the NDP.  The strategic voting also cost the PC Candidate Colleen McCleery votes as PC Votes went to Naqvi in hopes of keeping ‘a good MPP” and avoiding the eventual NDP win in the riding. The loss of votes that might have gone to the PC Party will mean less in vote subsidy as part of the Liberal revamping of election financing laws.

Strategic voting came late in this campaign leaving a few to think that this might just be an election about the voters preferences, that was until someone decided to enter the intersection out of turn and disrupt the flow.

Post Script: I wonder if the combined PC and Conservative voters ever wondered about their strength in strategically voting for the conservative candidate.  In the 2011 Federal election, Damian Konstantinakos garnered over 14,000 votes.  In an election like we just experienced this week it’s not unfathomable to consider that if conservatives tossed the old adage that “we can never win in Ottawa Centre” out the window and voted with their political hearts that Ottawa Centre would be won by a conservative?  Strategically thinking, if so called “blue liberals” saw that the conservative was a true option, wouldn’t that constituency of votes help elect a conservative in the OC?

Thank you for reading #RedHeartBlueSign, to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawaand on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97.  If you prefer email, please contact me at rdmedia@bell.net

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Temporary Disappearing Act

poofIt’s unsettling to me that I have not posted for a while, but I have a good reason – a REALLY good reason.  I have given up the title of Candidate of Record for the Ontario PC’s in Ottawa Centre with the selection of Colleen McCleery to carry the PC banner in the Ontario election.

I’ll be occupied for another 4 weeks on the campaign for Colleen McCleery.  This is not where I thought I would be, but I am very happy to be there with a great team of people working to elect Ms. McCleery, who is a great candidate, as the MPP for Ottawa Centre.

In my temporary disappearing act I have other posts that are related to the Ontario election you can click and read.  Here are suggestions:

I wrote this piece about the Green Party of Ontario, is this election the break though the party is hoping for as they are Looking for their first seat?  Ontario Greens: Out looking for number 1

Last month I wrote about the election and what each party should be doing for a favourable outcome, I called it How (not) to Lose an Election. How to win (not lose) an election 

Something a little different for me, this was a non-political book, but was a fascinating read.  I hope the post gets you interested in reading the book. Ancient Wisdom and Knowledge, is it forever lost?

And one more for good luck, a quick three book review post,  3 Books 3 Reviews

I hope you enjoy the posts, I’ll be back in June with thoughts on the Ontario election and what the future of Ontario could be after the votes are counted.

 

Ancient Wisdom and Knowledge, is it forever lost?

The Wayfinders

 

There is a saying, ‘a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing’, it is derived from English poet Alexander Pope’s poem “A Little Learning”.  The earliest known printing of the poem is 1709. For the full poem click here: https://www.poetsgraves.co.uk/Classic%20Poems/Pope/a_little_learning.htm.  I think of this after reading the CBC Massey Lectures, a collection of five lectures entitled “The Wayfinders” by Canadian Anthropologist and explorer-in-residence of National Geographic Wade Davis.

I am reminded of this while reading the Wayfinder lectures because Davis seems to acknowledge that the knowledge of the “new world” is at the heart of the demise of many of the earths longest known peoples. The Africans – where the migration of people started and spread across the earth, Australian Aboriginals, the tribes of the rain forests, the Polynesian sea navigators and the First Nations of the Sacred Headwaters of BC and others have been walking this earth ten’s of thousands of years before the Europeans of the new world spread their ‘knowledge’ and ‘truth’ across lands and waters.

Does, as Davis alludes to, learned knowledge undermine intuitive knowledge?  The knowledge of our souls is like a family history, it can only be learned through the telling of stories and family experiences.  The terms of an oral history and generational transmission of knowledge is used to describe how generations of the earth’s first inhabitants shared knowledge.  Davis provides a great example of learned through intuitive knowledge describing the different experiences of Spanish sailors compared to the navigation of the Polynesians. The Polynesians, told through the life training of a modern day sea navigator, learned about tides, the sea movements under the boats, winds and using the stars without the tools that the new world explorers had at their disposal.  It is a fascinating experience of learning of an old world craft in a modern time.

As much we marvel at the tools and innovation that new knowledge bring, we must acknowledge that there is prejudice that learned knowledge is greater than that which is transmitted generationally.  In the fourth lecture “Sacred Geography” Davis not only talks about the lands of British Columbia, but also how 50,000 years of living by Australian Aboriginals is almost wiped out within a generation because of their only way of living a ‘savage lifestyle’ was noticed by the civil people that arrived in Australia hundreds of generations after some of the Africans walked to Australia.  The newbies in the land considered themselves better.  Through laws and actions of the newcomers, about only 500 Australian Aboriginals now speak in 18 languages; Before the invasion, there were over 270 languages and more than 500 dialects spoken.  Today one language is lost each year.  It is a theme that is visited in greater detail in the book – the newcomers impose new world values over generations of native inhabitants.

There are peoples and ways of life that have existed since the beginning of time that never reach our consciousness unless we purposely put it there.   I’ll end with something from the initial lecture that really left an impression on me that demonstrates the loss of the richness of our world; today there are 7000 languages spoken today around the world.  Half of them are not being taught to children, the effect is that every two weeks a tribal elder dies and takes with them an ancient language.  Since the expansion of the new world over a recent few hundred years, the English language has become the major language spoken. The science and tools of a new world has erased the practice of intuition and a connectedness the earth for movement and sustainable living.

Have we reached an impasse? Is there a hope we can regain some of that connection to the earth? Can we utilize modern innovation and technology to record, save and revive lost and soon to be lost languages? Can we better marry the use of technology and intuition to live on this earth and live more sustainably both personally and commercially?

For tens of thousands of years people migrated, navigated and lived in a natural harmony with each other, animals, vegetation on the earth and its spirits. While we have learned many things and been able to innovate at a speed that in a hundred years can erase what took thousands of years to understand why can’t we look back and connect to each other and the past and become a modern Wayfinder?

Thank you for reading #RedHeartBlueSign, to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawaand on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. If you prefer email, please contact me at rdmedia@bell.net

Political Smoke & Fire

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In one day the Ontario NDP revealed major planks of their platform, the Ontario Liberals used prorogation and had the Lt.-Governor to read a list of election promises, I mean a speech from the throne, and in the same evening the Ontario PC Party held a Unity Rally. Tanya Granic Allen, Caroline Mulroney, Christine Elliot joined leader Doug Ford and 2000 Party members came together against one person – Kathleen Wynne.

In the events of that day, it turns out it was all a smoke screen, because after the smoke cleared we saw that the fire of an energetic campaign was just catching. In the 74 days (at the time this was posted) leading up to the June 7th Ontario election, expect to see more smoke behind a lot of fire. All parties have enough to battle that each of the three main parties will put up a smoke screen while fanning flames to get their own supporters out to vote.

Typically we think of smoke and mirrors, but in politics it is smoke and fire.

Let’s start with the NDP. To understand the dilemma Andrea Horwath has, Kathleen Wynne has moved the Liberals so far left that they are claiming some of the NDP’s ideas as theirs. Wynne introduced OHIP+, free prescriptions for everyone under 25, and now with the throne speech, they are going full blown Pharmacare. These are classic NDP platform ideas. They’ve never had to really cost them out because the Liberals have taken them and implemented them. So what’s Ms. Horwath to do? With the Liberals camping their election plans the NDP backyard, they need to hide that they are not relevant anymore. They need to come out with fire that Liberals are just “Leftist Lightweights” that the socially conscience need to come home to the Orange.

NDP Smoke: Don’t believe the rhetoric that the NDP will break the province, the Liberals have already done that

NDP Fire: We thought of it first, Wynne implemented it. Vote for the original.

You just know that the Liberals, and I mean every liberal in North American is going to throw everything they have at Doug Ford and the Ontario PC Party. It’s already started with American media outlets wondering how a ‘mini-trump’ could be elected in Canada these days? Liberals have nothing else, their accomplishments are tarred by spending, scandal and guilty verdicts.  Coming out of the PC Leadership Ford was the best hope and their worst fear that Kathleen Wynne could have. So what is Ford and the PC team to do? Let Ford be Ford he is his best PR machine.  He is not his brother, he not #45, he is Doug and Doug won over the PC Party Membership and the last two weeks has seen him tour  the province and unite Ontario PC voters.

PC Smoke: You don’t know the real Doug Ford, when you do, you’ll be better for it.

PC Fire: We can’t afford Liberals, they can’t find saving because their friends are taking your money, I will find the savings.

What is there to say about the Ontario Liberals and Kathleen Wynne that polls, commentators and 8 out of 10 Ontarians haven’t already said; ‘there is no way she can win this election’, ‘why is she even running, why not step down’. Never underestimate just how hard an Ontario Liberal Leader will work in a campaign. First though Wynne has to get past just how much Ontarians have had enough of her and her government. Having Ford as her main opponent just might be her best weapon, if Ontarians are willing to…

Liberal Smoke: Never mind what we’ve spent, look what we got you!

Liberal Fire: You don’t know the real Doug Ford, when you do, you won’t like him.

Take cover, the writ drops soon!

Thank you for reading #RedHeartBlueSign, to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. If you prefer email, please contact me at rdmedia@bell.net

Apologies to Chris de Burgh

Liberals in Red

Trudeau and Wynne are fading away, on Election Day

81% here, want Wynne to go awayDon’t touch the hard drives

Everyone knows Hydro rates are way too high

All Ontario wants is for Wynne to say bye-bye

The past seven days have been monumental for Liberals, or rather against them. Two8600113
polls have come out that indicated the Liberals are in trouble. The first poll, a national poll indicated that only 33% of Canadians would vote for Justin Trudeau, putting him back in the seats of the opposition. The poll had 38% of Canadians voting the Conservatives back into government. Even more striking is that in Ontario that same Ipsos – Global News Poll had the Conservatives grabbing 43% of the voter preference. Ontario is the key for any party to sit on the government side in Ontario.

Still in Ontario, a  Toronto Sun Poll says that 81% of Ontario voters do not want Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals in government. The poll showed that 44% of Ontarians would vote for the Ontario PC Party, 24% support the Ontario NDP. Only 19% support Kathleen Wynne. These are astounding numbers and may have a dramatic effect on ridings that normally are never considered in play for either of the current opposition parties. These are numbers that turn the red seats blue in South Western Ontario and Eastern Ontario. These numbers turn Liberals seats in Toronto to a toss up. For purposes here, I’d like to look at two ridings in Ottawa; Ottawa Centre and Ottawa Vanier.

For the Liberals, the two ridings are tales of two candidates. One that is strong and possibly the next leader of the Ontario Liberals, the other won in by election little more than 2 years ago by a less than strong candidate.

In Ottawa Vanier, in 2014, the Liberals had a 33% cushion on PC Martin Forget and in the 2016 by election that cushion dropped 19%. By election results showed erosion by the Liberals to the Ontario PC’s. NDP support remained steady between 2014 and 2016. The Sun poll, if it holds, is a sign that even a virtual stronghold like Ottawa Vanier is now a possible gain for the Tories. Under Madeleine Meilleur the riding would stay Liberal. With MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers campaigning for Wynne, Ottawa Vanier is no longer a liberal guarantee.

Onto Ottawa Centre, where I ran twice for the Ontario PC Party. Reading these poll results makes a two-time candidate like me almost giddy with the possibilities. In 2014 my team and I increased the PC vote to within striking distance of the NDP for second place in the riding.

Yasir Naqvi’s plurality in the riding is at risk based in these new polling results and in a best-case scenario, even puts his leadership bid at risk – if he cannot keep the riding. Why? In analysing poll results from 2014, the Liberals made gains on the left taking votes from the NDP. With the Liberals constantly moving left in policy, it’s going to be difficult for the Andrea Horwath to move to the right to capture back some of the vote they lost between 2011 and 2014.

With numbers like 81% and 44%, the Ontario PC Party has the chance to claim not only two ridings previously out of reach for generations, but also seats in Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Ottawa South.

Who gains? The PC vote? There’s a lot a room to have the Tories move left with a progressive platform while not forgetting our conservative values. A platform like the People’s Guarantee with a new leader will do just that.


Thank you for reading #RedHeartBlueSign, to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. If you prefer email, please contact me at rdmedia@bell.net

Trolls: They gave me three L’s – Look, Listen & Learn

TrollsI watched three movies last weekend; The Last Picture Show (from 1971), The Money Monster (from 2016) and Trolls (also from 2016).

All were entertaining, but following the weekend events of marches and a presidential anniversary, I got more than a toe tapping good time from Trolls. I actually got a message out of the sunshine, songs and hugs. It was Trolls that brought me my “living politically” moment I sought.

If you haven’t seen the movie you will have heard the song “Can’t stop this feeling” from Justin Timberlake. The version in the movie is actually better as Anna Kendrick adds her vocals to the songs…but I digress.

Here’s the premise; the trolls are thought to bring happiness to those that eat them. 20 years previously (in movie time) Trolls were forced from their home to avoid being devoured by Bergens, big bad monsters who are NEVER happy – except when they eat a Troll on a special holiday ‘Trollstis’. On the celebration of the 20 year anniversary of their freedom, they are rediscovered by the Bergen who was banished for not delivering the Trollstis meal that fateful night 20 years earlier.

Now, a full generation as passed and Bergens continue to be miserable, well because there are no trolls to eat.

Trolls are small, colourful and happy; Bergens are big bland and unhappy, very unhappy. One Bergen (Bridget) seeks her happiness with her love for the King, but she is a scullery maid being ordered around by the Bergen Chef, once banished and now seeking redemption. In an effort to save a group of Trolls scooped up Princess Poppy, encounters Bridget and through the ‘positivity’ of being a troll, Poppy convinces Bridget that happiness comes from inside a person, not be eating a troll.

Cutting to the end, Bridget and the King find love (and happiness); all the Bergens discover that they don’t have to eat a troll to find their happiness (and their singing voices); the big bad Bergen chef is once again banished and the land of Bergens is once again full of colour and Trolls and Bergens live happily ever after.

So, here’s the message, and it has nothing to do with singing, dancing or the hourly hugs; though I am sure these would not hurt at all. In the “win” the trolls had over the Bergens, it was not a “win” at all – but collaboration for better days. Trolls Poppy and Branch (Justin Timberlake) don’t push their ideals on others. Instead they work and show how their happiness comes from within; again let me add, no one ever preaches about being best. Well, one person does and that Bergen ends up being the outcast (again) by the time the dancing starts and the credits roll.

Seriously though, healthy debate resolves issues, name calling does not. Understanding issues and looking similar outcomes as a starting point means everyone wins. Being positive on action but not be being positive the other person is wrong will guide everyone down the same path and finally getting to a point that bullying solves nothing is the sure way to a common resolution.

So while I am on the opposite side of the aisle of the government, let me strive to follow three L’s; look, listen and learn from common aspects and seek change and adaptation. It won’t be easy, but I feel that this way if there is no impasse I will have done my best to see and seek a joint solution.

Ah, If only we had hair like Trolls that would tie all this up in simple bow.

Thank you for reading this post; to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. I can be reached at rdmedia@bell.net

Book Review: Are You Sleeping by Kathleen Barber

Are you sleepingAfter reading several non-fiction books, I was more than ready for a good work of fiction. My selection from Simon and Schuster, Are you sleeping by Kathleen Barber had arrived a couple weeks earlier and was sitting atop of my must-reads

Are you sleeping is the story of Jo Borden, who has successfully kept a secret from her circle of friends including her boyfriend. Successfully that is until an Internet blogger starts to investigate her past, more specifically the death of her father who was shot years before by the son of the neighbour. Claims are made that the young man convicted 12 years previously was incorrectly jailed for a crime he did not commit. It is an explosive accusation that attracts attention through social media and chat rooms until the mainstream media picks up on story.

While the mystery of the murder of Jo’s father is creating waves, Jo makes waves herself with the unravelling of her made up life story for the past 10 years. The unravelling includes a name change, a family that had not been talked about and the death of a mother, a death that is complicated by a lie of a death that took place a decade earlier.

Jo, really Josie Buhrman, is confronted with her reality, a reality that contradicts her new comfortable life in New York. Back into her life is a twin sister, Lanie, a former boyfriend and her now dead, for real, mother Erin Buhrman. Add the family history of neighbours, students and the intrusion of Poppy Parnell and podcasts that bring the murder of Chuck Buhrman and the drama surrounding the Buhrman family in that tragic time more than a decade ago is back in the local spotlight.

Are you sleeping, Barber’s debut suspense novel, published August 2017, has combined different mediums in the story to tell the tale of the Buhrman’s, the murder of Josie and Lanie’s father and the sudden death of their mother Erin Buhrman. Barber’s use of social media, and a transcripted podcast in the novel allows the reader to learn the background of the Buhrman family without the family drama getting in the way – until that drama is needed to bring a resolution about a mothers disappearance and a father’s death.

Are you sleeping grabbed me from the start, and held onto me until the near end when truths are discovered and by that point there was no turning back. In the end, Barber smartly allows Poppy Parnell to provide the epilogue to Are you sleeping.

Are you sleeping is a smartly written suspense with well-composed twists in the plot. For suspense lovers this is a must read! For others I offer a strong recommendation to pick up this novel from Kathleen Barber, not only for you but your book loving family and friends.

Thank you for reading this post; to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. You can also see me on www.redheartbluelife.wordpress.com where I post about the little things in life I see and do. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. I can be reached at rdmedia@bell.net