Tag Archives: CPCldr

From the floor of the #CPCldr Convention

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This past weekend I attended the Conservative Party Leadership Convention that selected former House Speaker and Opposition House Leader Andrew Scheer as the new leader of the Party, as a non-delegated convention and the second under the one member one vote process the expectations of an exciting outcome were low.

Following the Friday and Saturday evenings of the convention there were seveal factors the made this convention as exciting as any other in the combined PC/Reform/Alliance and Conservative history. here are a few reasons why.

5000 Pundits

There’s a saying, “everyone is an expert”, Saturday night there were 5000 of them. Everyone in the room had a theory and an outcome after each ballot result was announced. Guessing started as soon as 1st ballot results were revealed. The unspoken question everyone wanted to ask was “is this enough of a start for Bernier to win it all?” As successive candidates were dropped off the ballot we discussed where the votes would go and who would benefit from the dropped candidate’s loss. We all acted like the TV hosts lined up along the back of the room covering the event live. It wasn’t until Pierre Lemieux was last on the ballot that the prognostations started to go wild. It was good to see that Conservatives were looking at the possibilities and imagining outcomes and how those outcomes would help or hinder the Party.

Kevin O’Leary

When the results of the first round were announced, the reaction from the party members was not what I expected – laughter. In the first ballot rolecall, Kevin O’Leary was in 11th position with just over 1% of the vote. Previously I wrote about the decsion O’Leary made to drop out and how his timng was all off, rendering his name being left on the ballot.   O’Leary dropped out and endorsed Maxime Bernier, this was supposed to give Bernier the lead he could have to carry him through to win it all. Something happened on the way to the dance though, O’Leary’s followers didn’t go with him and some didn’t show up. It is unsure just where they ended up. Together Bernier and O’Leary are estmated to have 50,000+ memberships and with all of them voting Maxime would have had a lead that would have been insurmountable. He didn’t ,so was O’Leary a factor afterall in the race?

Trost and Lemieux

If there was anything that caused shockwaves greater than Kevin O’Leary finishing 11th, it was not only Brad Trost finishing fourth, but that Trost and and Pierre Lemieux BOTH finished in the top 6. Between them they had 15% share of the vote across Canada. Their 15% represented a huge voting block that was not anticpated by many.   The media did not see this coming.

IMG_20170526_2051172Between Trost and Lemieux, they demostrate the strength of family values and the SoCon segment of the Conservative Party. It is difficult to know how this will play out in the coming weeks and months leading up the 2019 election. But on Saturday evening, Trost and Lemieux from the right and Erin O’Toole from the centre delivered the keys to Stornaway to Andrew Scheer.

Max and Second Choice Support

There was a threshold that had to be met. The only gasp that was louder that then one where Andrew Scheer was announced as leader was the one heard when the first ballot was announced.   The gasp was the result of Maxime Bernier not breaching the 30% threshold of the points available on the first ballot. The consensus was that Bernier needed a strong opening ballot result to see a clear path to 50% with as little second ballot support as possible.

While Andrew Scheer and even as a remote as it seems, Erin O’Toole had a path to the leadership, Bernier however had a narrow path and as the subsequent ballots were announced, Andrew Scheer had faster second, third and fourth ballot support than Maxime Bernier. As the evening progressed through to the 13th and final ballot, even Erin O’Toole could not give Bernier what he needed, the majority of his next level support with the additional 9.63% to get to 50.01. His path was shorter than Scheer’s, but was full of weeds, rocks and fallen trees and was steep. Bernier didn’t make it.

Scheer and the coalition that made him the Leader

Through each round of balloting Scheer slowly gained the the support he needed to eventually overtake Maxime Bernier. Who were the Conservatives that elected Andrew Scheer as Leader of the party? Who was the Kingmaker? Scheer only made significant movement by the time the results for the for the 9th round of balloting was announced and Pierre Lemieux was dropped from the ballot. Scheer gained 2.18% while Bernier only moved 0.45%.

As candidates with support of 7% and higher dropped off, more of their supporters went to Scheer than Bernier, and it was only a matter of time before Scheer became number one, but only if there was enough time. Looking at who was on the ballot, people were doing the math and considered just where support would go, Bernier’s team must have been holding their breath and counting votes through each successive round. In the end it was the right, the environmentalists and the centre of the party that gave Andrew Scheer the final push and the leadership.

The Missing 130,000

There were 259,000 memberships when sales closed at the end of the leadership campaign, only 125,000 ballots were counted in the final results. Where did the 130,000 other ballots go? There have been comments online that as many as 20% of the ballots were spoiled. That still meant a large number of ballots never made it to the count. Were some of the ballots in the hands O’Leary supporters that did not have a home after O’Leary jumped ship? Likely, but what about the remaining 85,000 ballots? Where are they? We’ll never know.

At the end of the evening, the tortoise won the race, out pacing the hare. It was a slow but exciting unpredictable (for a while) release of ballot results – but no one left the room. No one wanted to dare miss the next round results. When the 13th and last round of results were announced, Andrew Scheer had won with a mix of support that would have made Stephen Harper proud. After the roar of victory, band kicked into a version of “We are the Champions” that the best of lounge singers would be proud to be a part of.

It was a good night to be a Conservative.

Thank you for reading this post; to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. You can also see me on www.redheartbluelife.wordpress.com where I am celebrating #Canada150 with a daily post of an event celebrating our sesquicentennial in Canada.

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. I can be reached at rdmedia@bell.net.

 

O’Leary was Late

RHBS 156

For months Conservatives have been waiting for consolidation among the ranks of the 14 candidates vying for the Conservative Party leadership.   Most were expecting (and secretly hoping) that one, two – oh heck 4 or 5 candidates on the lower end of polls would exit the race, I wonder if they were wary of having their own David Orchard moment and getting promises that would never be realized? Whatever the reason, the time to leave the race came and went with no movement from the bottom.

The moment in question I mention is the date before ballots were printed. Whatever date it was – that day came and went with 14 candidates going to the printer for 259,010 Conservative Party members to mark the 1 through 10 preferences. Presumably the date to withdraw from the race would fall between February 24, 2017 – the day nominations closed and March 28th when membership sales ended. There might have been another week in there as the cut off, but without the party publishing the key milestone dates we’ll never know.

All we know is that 259,010 party members will receive a ballot with an O’Leary-less leadership ballot with O’Leary on the ballot.

RHBS 156

Why was O’Leary late is leaving the race? His name on the ballot leaves a lot of questions. These questions would have disappeared if Kevin O’Leary had left the race before the ballot sent to the printers. Kevin O’Leary is still going to be part of the leadership conversation, I am sure he would want it any other way.

Now that he is out, will his memberships move to Bernier? How many of O’Leary’s memberships will still mark Kevin as #1? How many ballots will never make it to a mailbox?

With an upper tier of the leadership that has been thinned out, what is there for the lower tiered candidates to gain from the ballot? Are there expectations of a victory or the opportunity to make a statement? In the final debate, candidates Trost and Obhrai both appealed to those watching by stating that they each had common ground with other candidates on the stage. Of the lower tier how does coming number two help? Who do they become number two to? Of Bernier, O’Toole, Scheer or maybe Raitt or Chong who do Leitch, Trost, Obhrai or Lemieux aim to be 2nd on the ballot to?

Will we see deals made between Bernier and Raitt? O’Toole and Scheer? Does Chong even rate a number based on his Carbon Tax stand? The only other candidate that has outlined an environmental plan is O’Toole, does Erin court Michael and visa versa?

Ballots came in the mail to our home today, while we might be 90-100% of who our #1 is, it’s the 2 through 10, or maybe only a 2, 3 and 4 that are the source of discussion. It is too early to tell which way our ballots will go. If you have a ballot, good luck and have fun figuring out how your ballot will look…I hope to see you in Toronto on May 27th.

Thank you for reading this post; to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. You can also see me on www.redheartbluelife.wordpress.com where I am celebrating #Canada150 with a daily post of an event celebrating our sesquicentennial in Canada.

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. I can be reached at rdmedia@bell.net.