Tag Archives: Donald Trump

Book Review: Could it happen here?

IMG_20170928_0848160It has been an often asked question following the election of Donald Trump as the US President November 2017, Michael Adams’ book put the question front and centre “Could it happen here? Canada in the age of Trump and Brexit”.

While the title suggests a global perspective, the majority of the information provided by Adams focuses on Canadian and American polling and statistical information. Where does Adams get his research? He does it, the research – or more to the point, his company Environics does the polling and research. What Adams has done is pull the relevant information together and present numbers to make suggestions on the likelihood of Canada experiencing a Trump/Brexit moment.

If you like numbers and love the analytics of numbers you’ll enjoy this read. It reads like a press release at times, meaning for me having to review the numbers a few times to understand the message.   The message is important here, Adams does not go out of his way to make predictions, but present the statistical information to track probabilities in the different chapters.

Could it happen here does cement one fact for me; Canada and the US are extremely different in historical make up, social divisions and the reasons for the differences. This does add up to make the case that Canada’s Trump/Brexit moment is an extreme event and would need more stars aligning than were needed in the US. Our political makeup of three major parties almost guarantees we won’t see red baseball caps on most Canadians.

While the book deals a lot with Trump, it addresses Brexit and the likelihood of Canada wanting its Brexit moment. This year’s NAFTA renegotiations (a by-product of Trumpism) are the example. It was not any demand from Canada to tweak the trade agreement. In Parliament the Liberals and Conservatives are congratulating each other for the Canada European trade agreement. Canadians support these deals because we have been able to maintain Canadian institutions like supply management in the deals. Adams makes a big point that Canada’s immigration is generally supported by all parties and Canadians. The drivers that ended in the Brexit just don’t exist in Canada today.

Michael Adams presents the information that will allow the reader to make a personal conclusion to the question we’re faced with on the cover. But through the polling information and statistical data we see that when looking at the US, the UK and Canada, if you looked back populism seemed most likely in the US. For me, I’ve thought that America’s rise in populism began with the loss of Mitt Romney’s White House bid in 2012. Romney was no John McCain and no George Bush (both of them). He seemed to be as far from the common republican as you could be. But here is the problem, Trump has the wealth of Romney, however where Trump succeeded and Romney failed was that Trump spoke to the grassroots of republicans – Romney didn’t. The base of republican support doesn’t waiver, as it doesn’t with the Conservative Party of Canada. Populism in the US won the 2016 election because of an elitist candidate’s message to the base. Trump convinced the base hen was like them, though the lifestyle he lived was as far from them as anything could be.

Comparing a conservative base in Canada with the American provides substantial evidence that in Canada the rise in populism will be much more difficult. The key information that supports my idea is that Canadians don’t want a leader that doesn’t bend and avoids compromise. Americans and Canadians are opposites in this. Adams points out that a 2011 Environics survey 58% of Canadians want a leader that will compromise, 54% of Americans desire to have their leader to stand firm.

There are other reasons for me believing that Trumpism cannot succeed in Canada; a three party electoral system, our social and economic systems and dare I say it, our “Canadian Values”. There will however always be the wildcard of the voter themselves. Hillary Clinton found this out, the voters are fickle and if you lose their trust you cannot win.

Could it happen here? presents Canada vs. the US vs. Europe in a compact presentation. It also surprises the reader with the similarities between three. Similarities that do make you raise an eyebrow and go hmmmm.

 

Thank you for reading this post; to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. You can also see me on www.redheartbluelife.wordpress.com where I post about the little things in life I see and do.

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. I can be reached at rdmedia@bell.net

 

Sanctuary! Sanctuary?

sanctuary-city

A funny thing has happened since November 8, 2016 (Election Day in the United States); people feel the need to defend values in Canada because they feel similar values in the US are being attacked by the new administration. There is a reaction revolution happening in Canada. Protests against the President are taking place; protests are taking place against the decisions being made in the American capital. Funny thing though, Donald trump is not our President, heck, he isn’t even our Prime Minister. Yet Canadians are taking to the street to protest his actions. Likely though, Canadians are just trying to let our Municipal, Provincial and Federal governments know how they feel about the 45th American President.

I found that there are 17 sanctuary cities in the US; the largest are New York, Los Angeles, Detroit and Chicago. In Canada, Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and London ON are sanctuary cities. London being the newest, as the city council voted in 2017 to become a sanctuary city. But – do we need to have sanctuary cities here in Canada? Hasn’t Canada always been a welcoming country – taking in thousands from areas of the world afflicted with political uncertainty and upheaval?

What does it mean to be a sanctuary city? The designation of being a “Sanctuary City” ensures that people without legal documentation will have access to services they require. The designation also means that illegal immigrants would not be sent back to their home country if they were discovered.

This past week in Ottawa, Somerset Ward Councillor Catherine McKenney indicated she wants to make Ottawa a sanctuary city. A motion to council was expected this week (February 8th), but McKenney held the motion back and hopes to have Ottawa council vote to be a designated sanctuary city in the spring.

The idea of sanctuary goes back over 800 years to the 12th Century in England where fugitives, when they crossed the threshold of a church, the community would be legally required to feed and house the fugitives for up to forty days. I am sure we all at one point have seen a movie where someone is running into a church demanding “sanctuary”. Oh…and after 40 days, the fugitive had to confess his crime, give up everything they owned and walk barefoot to the nearest port and live in exile for the rest of their lives. Sanctuary has evolved since the days of King Henry III.

Back to Ottawa. Ottawa has a very generous history of accepting those from other countries recently; Syrians have found a home on our city as have Vietnamese boat people in the late 1970’s. Ottawans have continuously opened their doors and hearts to help others. Ottawa is now a vibrant multi-cultural community as Iraqi’s, Iranians, Somalians, Congolese and Afghans among others have come to Ottawa to live following political unrest and violence in their home country.

Ottawa, and Canada have accepted the many from the around the world – and in Ottawa’s case, they have had little if any documentation – they have been refugees. This has been done and we have welcomed many without the designation of being a sanctuary city.

So, do we need to have that designation? Conservative or Liberal federal governments have always accepted an open door policy to refugees, this is what Canada is.

Are Canadians and specifically, Canadian politicians allowing President Trump to dictate our laws and regulations? We didn’t expect NO political fallout from a Trump Presidency, but to have one man and his administration have such an effect is surely an overreaction. Canada has survived ‘cool’ relationships with the Americans in the past – what evidence is there where we expect that we won’t get through the next four years, or eight with Trump? It’s not like he can rule as Prime Ministers have for 10-15-20 years.

Are demands for sanctuary cities nothing more than a reaction,  a shield, a need for protection a need to define LOUDLY our Canadian Values?

Do Canadians lose when we feel the need to ‘bulk up’ against someone who has such different values than us? Shouldn’t sanctuary be something we want as a proactive step rather than a reactive move against one person?

If becoming a sanctuary city was such a good idea, why haven’t we discussed this earlier? Why do we need to wait for one person to cause this to happen. If we haven’t needed this is the past, why do we need it now?

Thank you for reading this post; to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. You can also see me on www.redheartbluelife.wordpress.com for what I see, hear and read.

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. I can be reached at rdmedia@bell.net.

 

Trump by Number

trump

Here are 25 numbers that define Donald Trump’s first week in Office.

0: The number of new federal empoyees to hired (due to a hiring freeze)

1: Supreme Court Justice to be nominated in ‘a couple of weeks’ by Trump

3: Number of countries affected by renegotiating NAFTA

7: Number of days in office

11: Other countries affected by Trump pulling out of the TPP

14: the number of Executive Orders signed so far

20: Percent of border tax for items brought into the US from Mexico

30: Days for the military to come up with a plan to defeat Isis

38: Tweets sent since Jannuary 22nd 2017

45: Donald Trump is the 45th President

48: Mike Pence is the 48th Vice-President

60: Number of days TransCanada has to resubmit its application for Keystone XL

72: People shot in Chicago in Trump’s first week in office

90: Number of days citizens from 7 countries are banned from entering the US for

100: Percent chance that Mexico will pay for the wall

120: Number of days suspension of allowing refugees into America

277: Number of Execurtive Orders Obama signed in 8 years (average of 35 per year)

3,721: Number of Executive Orders signed by Franklin Roosevelt

5000: Number of new Border Patrol Agents to be hired

10,000: Number of new Immigration Officers to be hired

20,000: The Dow Jones hit 20,000 in Trump’s first week in office

60,000: Reduction in refugees coming into the US in 2017 from 2016

440,000: People marched in the Washington DC Womens March

3,000,000: Number of illegal votes cast (for Hillary Clinton)

Massive: The size of the Inaugruation crowd (according to Trump)

 

Thank you for reading this post; to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. You can also see me on www.redheartbluelife.wordpress.com for what I see, hear and read.

I can be found on Twitter @robertdekker & @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97.

127: Only Four Years, No More

trump-thumbs-up

The US election cycle lasts up to 18 months. For many it starts too soon lasts too long. Because of the election cycles and lengths of terms we will be back at the US election watch for the mid-term elections in just over one year. The midterm elections are a good barometer of the performance of a sitting President. In 2014, the mid-terms were not kind to Obama, the economic recovery was just beginning but had not yet reached the level where the American public would see the results of the actions that the President had ordered. The mid-terms in 2018 will tell how the the American voter feels about the Trump presidency.

The results of the mid-terms will set the tone for the 2020 election where Trump will be seeking a second term. It will be the election where the chants of “drain the swamp” and “lock her up” are replaced with “four more years”.

Here it is, there will be no more than four years of the Trump presidency.  There I said it.

The coalition of Americans that voted for Donald Trump included the anti-Clinton, anti-Obama and anti-establishment. The anti-votes Trump received put him over the top in key states that in a ‘normal’ election cycle would have voted Democrat and put Hillary Clinton in the White House. What happened instead was that Donald trump tapped into the base of the Republican Tea Party, more correctly the angry American voter.

  Voter Turnout    
2016 58.1%* Trump 60,911,924
Clinton 61,913,199
2012 54.9% Obama 65,455,010
Romney 60,771,703
2008 57.1% Obama 66,882,230
McCain 58,343,671
2004 55.7% Bush 62,040,606
Kerry 59,028,109

The use of the popular vote in the American elections is secondary to State results and Electoral College votes. One number that should be watched and will be key to who takes the White House in 2021 is voter turnout. I expect voter turnout for what will be a re-election year for Trump will drop. Without a significant world event voter turnout will drop in Trump’s re-election plans. In 2004, George W Bush saw his vote number increase by 12 Million votes and voter turnout increase from 50.4% in 2000 to 55.7% in his 2004 re-election. Without 9/11 happening it is possible that Bush would not have seen the inside of the White House for another 4 years and we may have seen John Kerry become President.

There are a lot things going against Trump in a bid for any possible re-election, I have not even started to consider who the Democrats will have on the ballot AND if the Republicans will put someone up to challenge Trump in the primaries.

Oh, have I even mentioned thet Trump may not want a second four year term?

*http://www.electproject.org/2016g

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125: My US Election Prediction: If Trump Wins

trump-penceIn a few days the US Election cycle that started 18-24 months ago will be over. There will be a new President in the White House and when the election victor sits in the chair behind the desk, there will be a letter from President Obama to the 45th President of the United States.

I do not know who will be the next President. But I do know this. The Republicans and the Democrats both rolled the dice on who their candidate would be and now one will have to walk away from the table after playing cards they could not win with.

The impact of Wikileaks, or as Trump pronounces it Wee-kee-leaks, will have been yuge if Trump gets the win on the 8th. If Trump wins he better watch out for Wikileaks to start releasing emails of his – or even his tax returns, if he cannot deliver on his fast and big changes.

If Trump wins:

The first thing that will be needed is a hiring blitz by Immigration Canada to process the refugee applications from the USA. The second thing to watch out for will be Trumps first press conference. Third thing to get set for will be the first State of the Union address that will be completely adlibbed and will last for two hours. The special guests will be all the Trump kids and other long lost relatives.

I don’t think a Hillary Clinton loss would be the same as a Trump loss for the GOP. Yes, with a Clinton loss, the Democratic Party will also have to start repositioning itself, but in the opposite direction of a Trump loss for the Republican Party. Clinton was the establishment of the party. In fact, the Clinton – Gore – Clinton establishment of the Democrats will lose its power base. It lost it temporarily for 8 years when Obama won back-to-back terms.

With an Obama Presidency, the Clinton establishment wing of the party was still in place. Some Democrats have been waiting for a day when the party would return to the good old days Clinton White House days, this time with Hillary behind the desk. Some will have been waiting for a day when they can truly move on from the Clinton/Gore era of the party.

With a Clinton loss, the party will have a period of refocus; the DNC will start looking inward at its potential candidates for 2020. There is no way that Bernie Sanders will be back – throughout the Democratic primaries there were no other candidates that were even sniffing around the race. Of course based on the history of the party, there is nothing to rule out a presidential run by Michelle Obama after she serves a term or two as the Senator from Illinois.

If Hillary loses it could be because the Democrats did not have a plan C after Bernie Sanders – no one to pick up the baton to chase Hillary in the primaries. This election was Hillary’s, if she won great. If she lost even better, the Democratic Party would move on and Bill Clinton would become the great Democratic Party poster boy for the best recent years of the party just like Ronald Reagan is for the Republicans.

And one last thing, all of what happens to the Democrats will also unfold on Trump TV.

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124: My US Election Prediction: If Clinton Wins

clinton-kane

In a few days the US Election cycle that started 18-24 months ago will be over. There will be a new President in the White House and when the election victor sits in the chair behind the desk, there will be a letter from President Obama to the 45th President of the United States.

I do not know who will be the next President. I have no idea if Hillary will have one of the biggest presidential campaign collapses since Dukakis wore a helmet. I don’t know if Trump will get in the White because he won, or if it was because Clinton lost.

What we have seen in this election is that there is a divided electorate in the US. Whoever wins, the losing party will see a rebellion. Here is how I foresee things panning out.

If Clinton wins:

If Hillary Clinton wins not only does she become #45, but she will be the First woman President and the 1st Spouse of a former President to win the White House. She will also become the reason for the biggest shakeup within the Republican Party.

If you thought the revolution the Trump started is something just wait. Trump was supposed to be the anti-establishment candidate or that is how he called himself. He was the outsider. He was the candidate that was working against a rigged system. If he loses, he will claim that the whole election, even the primaries were rigged against him. He may even go so far as to say it was the Republican Party that rigged it so he would win the nomination and then lose the general election.

You see, the Republican Party establishment HAD to give the nomination to Trump; he was just not going away! He bullied his way through the primaries, and when bullying Clinton didn’t win him the White House, this will be all the Republican Party will need to say, we did it your way – we let you have your candidate that would let you have your chants, your “Make America Great Again” hats. In order to be able to have the party shift back to a qualified, widely respected and winnable candidate they needed to implode with the smallest amount of collateral damage to the party itself.

And the best part of Donald Trump losing is that America will be able to see all this unfold on Trump TV.

Up Next: If Trump Wins

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#110: 8 Days in July Part II Clinton 2.0

DNC on Philly

For 8 days in July our household was glued to CNN on TV and in the Car (via Sirius XM) attending to every word said, reported, critiqued and debated during the two Presidential Nomination meetings. I have Liberal friends who can’t vote Democrat and I have Conservative friends who won’t go work for Trump like they did for Romney in 2012. As a Red Tory I can float between the two party’s depending on who the candidate was. As I mentioned in Part I, my ideal Republican Presidential Candidate from day 1 of the primary season was Jeb Bush.

As for the Democrats, I was a fan of Clinton 1.0, he was a leader at the time it was needed – he connected to the people and he could speak! He commanded attention when he spoke. As for Clinton 2.0, I admired her. I read her book “Hard Choices” and was impressed with her handling of world affairs. though many continue to debate her success at the job there can be no denial that being as close as she was to the Presidency gave her a view many of the candidates did not have.

Through the primary season, the democrats put on a show! Hillary Clinton vs The Bern! Bernie Sanders looked like your father, he spoke and lectured young people like your grandfather did – but everyone listened to every single word he said. He was the sane version of Donald Trump; speak in a plain language without the insults and childish name-calling.

Hillary was the front-runner from the day Barack Obama was sworn into office for his second term in January 2013. It was only a matter of time before she would be the confirmed candidate, except that no one told Bernie Sanders.

What ever you thought of the Republican Convention the week before – the Democratic Convention was the opposite. It was planned and orchestrated perfectly. Speakers were on time and the only speakers that really went late into the evening where the headliners; the First Lady and President; Michelle and Barack. President Clinton spoke as well, proving once again that he is one of the finest orators of our generation. While he was supposed to speak about Hillary, I was disappointed there was not one mention of the possibility of him becoming America’s 1st Gentleman of the White House.

The convention did not see, nor did it need, the distraction of the leak of DNC emails that cost Debbie Wasserman Shultz her time in the spotlight as the Chair of the convention.

But in the end, he Democratic convention was what a convention has and should always look like – there was a love in between Sanders and Clinton and when it was all done about 50,000 balloons must have fallen from the ceiling of the arena.

But, there are cracks that need to be watched come November. IF Hilary cannot win the White house from Trump, the result will not by unlike what Donald Trump has been able to corral in the Republican Party. While Sanders will not run again, there will be others that will take up the cause of Bernie and turn the Democratic Party on its head and the establishment of the party will be hard pressed to stop what may be coming.

Thanks for reading this post, please follow me on WordPress to be notified of when I post my next blog.  I can also be found on Twitter @robertdekker@rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97.