Tag Archives: Ontario Liberal Party

How to win (not lose) an election

 

In essence the plan to win an election is easy, it can be described in four easy steps.

  1. Brand your leader in a positive light
  2. Have a platform that is friendly and believable
  3. Frame the other parties, and their leaders as less than undesirable
  4. Do not make any errors or missteps

Since the loss to the Liberals in 2003 the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party have tried three times to get back to government. Looking at the four easy step lets revisit the elections of 2007, 2011, 2014 and look ahead to the 2018 election.

2007 Election Result: Liberal Majority

The story of the 2007 election was that the Liberals were able to frame Leader John Tory on the promise to publically fund faith-based schools. Tory was branded as out of touch with Ontarians on this issue and the majority of the voters disagreed with the idea of extending funding past the Public and Catholic school boards. While all parties were able to manage the first two steps, the PC’s lost the war in step three and with a flip flop to hold a free vote on the funding issue – John Tory was the leader with the largest misstep.

2011 Election Result: Liberal Minority

Both the PC’s and NDP had new leaders. The Liberals stuck with Dalton McGuinty who was not experiencing the same popularity as he did four years earlier. The trouble was that Ontario voters did not know who Tim Hudak was. The PC’s failed to capitalize on a new leader facing a tired Premier who really should have lost as the City of Toronto had voted in populist Rob Ford as Mayor and the Liberals federally were taking a pounding. The problem was not branding Hudak as the guy Ontario needs; rather going with a leader Ontario knew was the better option for the voters. As for the four steps, the PC’s lost number 1, and didn’t do well enough in the other three to recover from a lackluster branding of their leader.

2014 Election Result: Liberal Majority

This was an election Tim Hudak had in the bag, and lost it with not bad policy – but bad branding. The Liberals had a new Premier, Kathleen Wynne, who took over after McGuinty rolled up his sleeves for a press conference and threw in the towel. Polls were tight between the Liberals and PC, but Conservatives thought they had a winner of a platform. The double double of creating 1 million jobs in 10 years along with reducing the civil service through attrition by 100,000 was labelled as bad math and Hudak would fire 100,000 government workers. The PC’s were not able to define their message ahead of the Liberals doing it for them. The PC’s lost all four steps of how to win an election.

2018 Election Result: TBD

Up until the end of January this was Patrick Brown’s election to win with a leader that was doing well and the People’s Guarantee platform, then stuff happened and the PC’s held a lickety split leadership and elected Doug Ford to lead the party to the June 7th election. Wynne was sinking in the polls, and the PC’s had high polling results, without a leader. Ford is the new guy, but he’s not inexperienced and so far neither Wynne nor the NDP have been able to put a label on him. The liberals will have to hang all their hopes on their election budget, however Ontarians seem to be seeing through the “buy your vote” spend to win platform. Andrea Horwath is in this for the third time running leader for the NDP.

Looking at our four steps, Doug Ford is a brand in itself, so far it’s a brand that people are not running away from, the polls still indicate a huge loss for Wynne and big win for Ford. With Ford dumping most of the People’s Guarantee, he has to present a platform that voters will see as sensible and achievable and he is clearly making his point that the Liberals are done. All that is left is for Doug Ford is to avoid the misstep history that claimed John Tory and Tim Hudak and finally bring the PC’s back to government.

Thank you for reading #RedHeartBlueSign, to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. If you prefer email, please contact me at rdmedia@bell.net

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Apologies to Chris de Burgh

Liberals in Red

Trudeau and Wynne are fading away, on Election Day

81% here, want Wynne to go awayDon’t touch the hard drives

Everyone knows Hydro rates are way too high

All Ontario wants is for Wynne to say bye-bye

The past seven days have been monumental for Liberals, or rather against them. Two8600113
polls have come out that indicated the Liberals are in trouble. The first poll, a national poll indicated that only 33% of Canadians would vote for Justin Trudeau, putting him back in the seats of the opposition. The poll had 38% of Canadians voting the Conservatives back into government. Even more striking is that in Ontario that same Ipsos – Global News Poll had the Conservatives grabbing 43% of the voter preference. Ontario is the key for any party to sit on the government side in Ontario.

Still in Ontario, a  Toronto Sun Poll says that 81% of Ontario voters do not want Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals in government. The poll showed that 44% of Ontarians would vote for the Ontario PC Party, 24% support the Ontario NDP. Only 19% support Kathleen Wynne. These are astounding numbers and may have a dramatic effect on ridings that normally are never considered in play for either of the current opposition parties. These are numbers that turn the red seats blue in South Western Ontario and Eastern Ontario. These numbers turn Liberals seats in Toronto to a toss up. For purposes here, I’d like to look at two ridings in Ottawa; Ottawa Centre and Ottawa Vanier.

For the Liberals, the two ridings are tales of two candidates. One that is strong and possibly the next leader of the Ontario Liberals, the other won in by election little more than 2 years ago by a less than strong candidate.

In Ottawa Vanier, in 2014, the Liberals had a 33% cushion on PC Martin Forget and in the 2016 by election that cushion dropped 19%. By election results showed erosion by the Liberals to the Ontario PC’s. NDP support remained steady between 2014 and 2016. The Sun poll, if it holds, is a sign that even a virtual stronghold like Ottawa Vanier is now a possible gain for the Tories. Under Madeleine Meilleur the riding would stay Liberal. With MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers campaigning for Wynne, Ottawa Vanier is no longer a liberal guarantee.

Onto Ottawa Centre, where I ran twice for the Ontario PC Party. Reading these poll results makes a two-time candidate like me almost giddy with the possibilities. In 2014 my team and I increased the PC vote to within striking distance of the NDP for second place in the riding.

Yasir Naqvi’s plurality in the riding is at risk based in these new polling results and in a best-case scenario, even puts his leadership bid at risk – if he cannot keep the riding. Why? In analysing poll results from 2014, the Liberals made gains on the left taking votes from the NDP. With the Liberals constantly moving left in policy, it’s going to be difficult for the Andrea Horwath to move to the right to capture back some of the vote they lost between 2011 and 2014.

With numbers like 81% and 44%, the Ontario PC Party has the chance to claim not only two ridings previously out of reach for generations, but also seats in Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Ottawa South.

Who gains? The PC vote? There’s a lot a room to have the Tories move left with a progressive platform while not forgetting our conservative values. A platform like the People’s Guarantee with a new leader will do just that.


Thank you for reading #RedHeartBlueSign, to catch all my posts and be notified as new ones come up please follow me on WordPress. I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, @rdmediaottawa and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97. If you prefer email, please contact me at rdmedia@bell.net

Why vs. Why not, that is the Question.

Why

The question I have seen in print lately is “Why would anyone want to lead the Ontario PC Party?”  The media seems intent on assuming that Ontarians would never support the Ontario PC Party enough for  it form government.  The media also assumes that the only way the PC Party could govern is by the Wynne and the Liberals losing government.

Why wouldn’t someone want to lead the Ontario PC Party?

The political landscape of Ontario is diverse, but will entertain any offer from a Party and a Leader that appeals to them.  The June 12th Ontario General Election demonstrated that there are Liberals who will vote PC; Dippers that will vote Liberal; PC’s that will vote NDP and many voters that will NOT vote at all.   The reasons for the switch vary, but one stands out:  A voter will mark the ‘X’ on the ballot for the Party that they feel will WIN the election, even voters don’t like to finish second. A new PC Leader that can engage the electorate and excite them with a message of hope, prosperity and a good future will surely be the winner Ontario voters are seeking.  Why wouldn’t someone wish to be the leader of the PC Party knowing that this would await them?

Who wouldn’t someone seek the leadership of the Ontario PC Party knowing what could be won?

The province under a Liberal government has not been an economic boost and based on the budget that was passed this week, Ontario will still be dragging behind the economy of Canada for another year or two at a minimum.  In four years the same Ontario voters that gave the Liberals a majority will again be judging Kathleen Wynne on her governments’ performance.  Based on experts and credit rating agencies, a turnaround is not expected soon.

Based on that who wouldn’t want to seek the leadership knowing what could be…

Whoever is chosen the next leader of the Ontario PC Party will have been selected because they were deemed the best by the members – the one person that will bring an electoral victory to the party. There is one certainty waiting…the negative messaging from the Ontario Liberals and their friends in the Working Families Coalition.

Who wouldn’t want to seek the leadership of the Ontario PC Party and show Ontarians that a fiscally responsible platform can gain support from a wide cross section of the province?

The Working Family Coalition (WFC) stepped up their attack this year on a pragmatic and promising platform that would have been a huge step forward for Ontario.  The new Leader would want to face the WFC head on, stand firm on a good solid platform and say “bring it, we are ready and we will prevail this time” adding “your message of negativity, doom and gloom will not be sold this time to voters”.

Why wouldn’t someone seek the leadership of the party knowing that they could finally show the WFC to door out of the election party?

While media might be asking why someone would seek the Ontario PC Party Leadership, the question of why not seems to be the better question.

As candidates in waiting ask the “why not” question, I am looking forward to hearing the leadership candidates ask members why “wouldn’t I be best choice to lead the party?”

 

I invite you to share your ideas by commenting to this post or any post on my blog.  You can also email me directly at robdekkeroc@gmail.com.

So as we move forward, I am really excited by the opportunities that are available for us to grab hold of as a Party and locally with the Ottawa Centre PC Riding Association.

 

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97 and at www.robertdekker.ca.

Gone? Not Really…

I cannot say I was surprised by the announcement by Premier McGuinty to resign last night.  When I saw the first tweet from Toronto Star Queens Park reporter Robert Benzie just after 6pm I knew the end was only a few minutes away.  Nor am I surprised that Queens Park will be prorogued, you see McGuinty doesn’t really want to leave.  So now he is gone, but not really…

This move makes it easier for him to stay and work without having to report to anyone.  He will not report to the Opposition MPP’s because Queens Park will remain dark until who knows when.  McGuinty will not have to report to the voters of Ontario because by the time there is another election he’ll be gone (for real).

The moves last night are merely another way that the Ontario Liberal Party will control the message and the Parliament of Ontario.  With QP closed for business the government will no longer be held to task for the Gas Plant closure, ORNGE, eHealth, the deficit and lack of Job Creation plans.  For the present time, no longer will the government have to face any consequences for their actions.

Hopes that the Lt-Gov. of Ontario will deny the prorogation are slim.  Both the PC Party of Ontario and the Ontario NDP have asked for the legislature to remain sitting to deal with the important issues facing this government and Ontarians.  The move made last night was a selfish move on the part of the Ontario Liberal Party to remain in power and continue to control the message and the direction of the government.  I am not sure they noticed, but the direction they have been taking Ontario is not the right path for a prosperous Ontario.

In Ottawa Centre and across this province the message will be of a better, growing and healing Ontario under a Tim Hudak PC Government.  Whether it comes tomorrow, two months or in 6 months, I and all my PC Party Colleagues will continue to bring to voters the PC Party Paths of Prosperity.  So while as long as Dalton McGuinty remains at the helm of Ontario for at least another 5 months Ontario remains at the mercy of the waste of billions of tax dollars that this government has orchestrated.

I am looking forward to continuing to knock on doors in Ottawa Centre and bring a message that “Yes, Ontario can lead again”.  Step 1 has been taken by the Premier, Step 2 will come, but not until the Ontario Liberal Party feels they are truly ready to face voters of Ontario.

But alas, Ontario will not truly be ready to be a leader in Canada until McGuinty is REALLY gone as is the Liberal Party of Ontario as the governing party.

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker and on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97
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