Tag Archives: Ottawa Elections 2014

The Known and Unknown of the 2014 Ottawa Election

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In Project Management there are knowns and unknowns. In the Risk Management of a project the known risks and unknown risks are considered into the mitigation of these risks to ensure a project is a success.

There has been much said about 25% of Council seats changing. We have ‘known’ that 6 wards will have new representation because of incumbents stepping down.

The ‘unknown’ is how many current Councillors could be unseated? In the 2010 Ottawa Municipal Elections six incumbent councillors were defeated. That election saw Stephen Blais, Tim Tierney, Mathieu Fleury, Katherine Hobbs, Scott Moffatt and Mark Taylor beat the incumbent advantage. Jim Watson also defeated incumbent Larry O’Brien to take over the Mayors’ chair. The 2010 vote saw a 48% change in people sitting around the council table.

Who are the unknowns of the 2014 Ottawa Election that could unseat an incumbent?

Here are the Wards where the threats of the unknown taking over are greatest.

Kanata North: Marianne Wilkinson promised in 2010 she would not run again, she changed her mind. In 2010 she took half the vote, but Jeff Seeton also took 45%. This time around Jeff is back and Matt Muirhead is challenging Ms. Wilkinson as well. The three way split could see a change in the Kanata North.

West Carleton – March: Of all the wards that could turn, this has the smallest chance but I include it because the wildly popular Eli El-Chantiry is going up against the wildly popular Jonathan Mark. It’s a small chance, but I like Jonathan’s chances here, it will depend on his organization and his ability to get his supporters to vote.

Stittsville: A two person race can be an incumbent’s worst scenario. In Ward 6 the outcome here this will depend on how unhappy Stittsville residents are with garbage, Orgaworld and transit. There could be a new Councillor for the residents of Stittsville.

Bay: It was only four years ago that Alex Cullen lost this seat to Mark Taylor. Cullen is back and could take this back if voters are looking for someone to put up more of a fight at council.

Gloucester – Southgate: Has the Ward had enough of Diane Deans? This question has been asked many times. Will 2014 be the year Ms. Deans is retired by the voters? Just like in Kanata North, the split caused by having strong candidates running usually saves the incumbent, I think 2014 the outcome might be different.

Rideau-Vanier: Mathieu Fleury has his work cut out for him this year; he is up against some stiff competition.

Rideau – Rockcliffe: Peter Clarke won this Ward with only 25% of the vote in a field of 10. There are 5 candidates challenging Clark this time around. 25% of the vote could win the election this time around again – I don’t think it will be Peter Clark with the 25%.

Kitchissippi: This is an interesting Ward, with 3 of the 4 challengers all vying for the same anti-development vote. I expect that Katherine Hobbs will keep her seat and serve for another 4 years.

Rideau-Goulbourn: Scott Moffatt took this seat in ’10 because Glen Brook was complacent. There is a lot of talk that the rural vote will go elsewhere. I don’t see it happening in 2014. Scott has stood his ground at council supporting the rural vote.

With these nine ‘unknown’ outcomes, council could again see an almost 50% changeover in councillors. My guess is that as many as five incumbents will go down to defeat with almost a cleaning of house in the west end with the exception Kanata South.

On the night of October 27th we see how many unknowns become a known.

I invite you to share your ideas by commenting to this post or any post on my blog. You can also email me directly at robdekkeroc@gmail.com.

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97.

Somerset Ward 2014, my vote goes to…

Ottawa Election 2014Since the end of the provincial election I have been asked to consider the possibility of submitting my name to run in Somerset for the fall Municipal Election. Like others that ran and did not win – and are Progressive Conservatives, there has been a call to arms to have us run for Ottawa City Council. In Ottawa, only one unsuccessful provincial candidate has decided to run, that being Alex Cullen in his old Bay Ward. Others I have spoken to have many reasons for not running. The two main reasons I hear are 1. “Two elections in one year? My boss would…me” and 2. “I am focused on finding a new Leader of the Ontario PC Party that will bring the change needed in Ontario for a better future for the province. As I stated in a previous post, I am committed to the Ontario PC Party, helping to select a Leader that can be elected as Premier in 2018.  Also, I have a third observation – there are currently 9 very good candidates and before September 12th there may well be a tenth, some have been canvassing for many months, many of the candidates I do not disagree with some of their positions.

As I consider who my vote goes to, I am looking for the candidate that will bring needed support to businesses in Somerset Ward.  For far too many years Somerset has not had a business friendly Councillor, this has to change. To keep the ward a vibrant and lively place to live work and shop, local small businesses must have a friend in the Council Chambers.

I find that though it is a mixed field of candidates in the ward, all are talking Transit, Sustainability, Transportation, Eco-district and keeping the community vibrant as the right development continues come into the area. So for me there was no way to find a difference among them using those campaign promises and platforms.  I needed more.

I asked one candidate about taxes, their response was they did not have a position on the tax rate. I have also spoken to others who say that at least 4 candidates will be exactly the same as we have now – and I agree.  Somerset needs change, not just changing the name of the councilor.  A change in how the Councillor works for ALL of Somerset Ward constituents is needed.

I am looking for a fresh approach to working with the community, a new approach to supporting business and calm sensible approach to development in Centretown and Somerset Ward.

On October 27th, my vote in Somerset Ward is going to Thomas McVeigh.

I have worked with Thom in the Centretown Citizens Community Association on the Board and on the CCCA Planning Committee. As a member of the Wellington West BIA Thom is managing a business in that community and he has worked on several community boards in Ontario and BC. Thom has demonstrated to me a calm and sensible way of doing business. He has demonstrated an excellent knowledge of the issues in Somerset Ward and Ottawa as a whole. He has a very good grasp of how to work with others and how to sensibly – without dreaming too large – accomplish goals. Working alongside Thom in the CCCA we have the same thoughts on smart and sensible development in the ward. We should not be afraid of developers, but it doesn’t mean we give away anything either. When I talk to Thom I hear and feel that he talks from his heart, he cares about our community and wants so much to make it better and brighter.

As a Red Tory, I support Thom in his drive to help the vulnerable, to ensure all are looked after BUT he sees, as I do, a real need for fiscal responsibility in Ottawa at the Council Chambers. I am going to vote for Thom, I see Thom as being the choice that can carry on some of Diane Holmes’ community and social work. With Thom I see that he brings to businesses a friend and a voice for the concerns of shops, restaurants and other businesses on Elgin, Bank, Sparks, Somerset, Preston and every other street in Somerset Ward at City Council.

I encourage those that supported me in June and feel as I do about doing all we can do help others and at the same time making sure we watch how are dollars are raised and spent, to support and vote for Thomas McVeigh on October 27th, he will be a fantastic Councillor for all residents, businesses and services that call Somerset Ward home.

October 27th, VOTE for Thomas McVeigh in Somerset. Please take the time to visit his website www.thomasmcveigh.com to learn more about Thom, his family and his ideas. 

Thom McVeigh

I invite you to share your ideas by commenting to this post or any post on my blog. You can also email me directly at robdekkeroc@gmail.com.

I can be found Twitter @robertdekker, on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/n5l97.