Tag Archives: US Elections

127: Only Four Years, No More

trump-thumbs-up

The US election cycle lasts up to 18 months. For many it starts too soon lasts too long. Because of the election cycles and lengths of terms we will be back at the US election watch for the mid-term elections in just over one year. The midterm elections are a good barometer of the performance of a sitting President. In 2014, the mid-terms were not kind to Obama, the economic recovery was just beginning but had not yet reached the level where the American public would see the results of the actions that the President had ordered. The mid-terms in 2018 will tell how the the American voter feels about the Trump presidency.

The results of the mid-terms will set the tone for the 2020 election where Trump will be seeking a second term. It will be the election where the chants of “drain the swamp” and “lock her up” are replaced with “four more years”.

Here it is, there will be no more than four years of the Trump presidency.  There I said it.

The coalition of Americans that voted for Donald Trump included the anti-Clinton, anti-Obama and anti-establishment. The anti-votes Trump received put him over the top in key states that in a ‘normal’ election cycle would have voted Democrat and put Hillary Clinton in the White House. What happened instead was that Donald trump tapped into the base of the Republican Tea Party, more correctly the angry American voter.

  Voter Turnout    
2016 58.1%* Trump 60,911,924
Clinton 61,913,199
2012 54.9% Obama 65,455,010
Romney 60,771,703
2008 57.1% Obama 66,882,230
McCain 58,343,671
2004 55.7% Bush 62,040,606
Kerry 59,028,109

The use of the popular vote in the American elections is secondary to State results and Electoral College votes. One number that should be watched and will be key to who takes the White House in 2021 is voter turnout. I expect voter turnout for what will be a re-election year for Trump will drop. Without a significant world event voter turnout will drop in Trump’s re-election plans. In 2004, George W Bush saw his vote number increase by 12 Million votes and voter turnout increase from 50.4% in 2000 to 55.7% in his 2004 re-election. Without 9/11 happening it is possible that Bush would not have seen the inside of the White House for another 4 years and we may have seen John Kerry become President.

There are a lot things going against Trump in a bid for any possible re-election, I have not even started to consider who the Democrats will have on the ballot AND if the Republicans will put someone up to challenge Trump in the primaries.

Oh, have I even mentioned thet Trump may not want a second four year term?

*http://www.electproject.org/2016g

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126: Voices from America

your-voice-your-vote

I went searching tonight for voices from America that could present alternate views on the results of Tuesday’s US Election.  I was looking for the non-journalist view, people that had a view point and wanted express it.  Below are three blogs that reflect three different outlooks for America.  I hope that you’ll take a look at each of them as listening to what a non-journalist says can give us much more insight into what we might expect leading up to and after the inauguration in January.

The first is from a blog called “The Politics of Writing”, I have reblogged posts from this writer in the past.  Here the blog takes the voice of those that were hoping for Hillary Clinton to find a path to 270.  This will certainly cause a few Republicans to tell the writer to stop whining and accept the loss.

https://wordpress.com/read/feeds/48698896/posts/1217877348

Of course you know I have to swing right for number two, it is a post from The Last Refuge a piece that calls itself “An Important  Post-Election Message about Media Polling…”  The Last Refuge is from the Conservative Treehouse, so you know what you are getting here.  They call themselves a rat-tag group of misfits. I figured after reading the first contributor you should have a little something from the right.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/11/09/an-important-post-election-message-about-media-polling/

The third and last is “The Morning After” by Tommy Tomlinson a writer for ESPN, so he writes mainly about sports so I figured he would fit into what I was trying to accomplish with this post.  His piece  strikes a chord that should resonate with most who are just looking for a way to navigate the next four years.

https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/4757264/posts/1394

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Hope and Opportunity

 

Welcome to Hope and Opportunity, my two favourite ideals to talk about and work towards.  Too often is can be easy to not see the Hope & Opportunity because of despair and divisiveness.  Hope & Opportunity is out there, I found it out there in a few places recently.

Halifax and Cape Breton, recent municipal elections in Nova Scotia saw these two municipalities elect a former Federal MP and Provincial MLA as Mayor.  Mike Savage, former Liberal NS MP is now Halifax Mayor, and Cecil Clarke, former NS PC Cabinet Minister and Speaker is Mayor of Cape Breton.  They are now heading up Regional Municipalities going in different directions.  Halifax is booming and signs of growth are everywhere, it has to be controlled to ensure Halifax can maintain the good outlook – that is what Mr. Savage promises to do, look forward and overcome the divisive council and have everyone work together.  Cape Breton is not.  Both these experienced politicians were elected to bring leadership to the local economies.  In Mr. Clarke’s case, he is to stop the bleeding through working with other NS Municipal councils to improve the Cape Breton economy.  As different as their local situations are, both Mayors-Elect were voted in because of their experience and knowledge to bring Hope and Opportunity to their cities.

In the US Elections Hope & Opportunity showed itself not in the results of the election, those numbers show a truly divided nation.  To see the Hope and Opportunity look further than the despair of the numbers but in the opportunity that now exists for the leaders of the US, in the White House, House and Senate to show they ‘want’ to work together to resolve the big issues of the day.  There might only be a small window for that to take place, so the hope is that the politicians put the mid-term elections of 2014 and the 2016 race for the White House out of their thoughts and take the opportunity now to fix 2012 and 2013.  If this does not happen the greatest stalemate in political history will continue and threatens to take away the Hope and Opportunity the voters on both sides saw when they cast their ballots on November 6th.

There WILL be new Leadership in Ontario; we know this for a fact, for now we have the status quo (read my post from October 16th on this).  Within all four political parties in Ontario,  Hope & Opportunity are presenting itself to the leaders (and to the leaders that wannabe).  While my position is pretty darn clear who I think will be the next leader of Ontario (http://www.ontariopc.com/tim-hudak/), the Hope & Opportunity for the other Parties is bright and vibrant.  The NDP, Green and the PC Parties are presenting their initial visions of a Hopeful and Opportunity filled Ontario.  As the Ontario Liberal Party goes through its way of finding a new leader, each of those candidates will be casting their own lines of Hope & Opportunity for not only Ontario but for the OLP.

I like the look, the feel and the sound of Hope and Opportunity much better than despair and divisiveness.  Look around everyone; Hope and Opportunity are everywhere, sometimes you have to scrap away the film of all the other stuff to find it. Don’t let the Despair and Divisiveness Despots take your Hope and Opportunity from you – it’s yours and you own it.  Go out and use it!

Hope & Opportunity look different for everyone, some share views of it and others don’t.  Different takes on Hope & Opportunity are not divisive; the division comes when differing views refuse to see the common elements as agents for opportunity to work together.

We now get to see if Nova Scotia, the US, the Ontario Liberal Party and Ontario can harness their collective Hope and Opportunity for a better tomorrow and future days.

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